Severe Weather Potential Down, But Not Out

Early morning shower and storm activity was one of the limiting factors we talked about yesterday when trying to pinpoint if we'd see severe weather Wednesday afternoon and evening. Remnants of a large-scale MCS pushed in early this morning dropping heavy rain in places along and near I-64 in Southern Illinois. In addition to very heavy rains, strong winds caused minor damage in Jefferson and Wayne counties (see below for pictures). This has left us with a few forecasting challenges that we'll discuss briefly below.

Branch estimated at 4" in diameter down in Woodlawn (Courtesy of Rhonda King)

Grain bin knocked over in Woodlawn.

Rain has posed a challenge of figuring out how much instability will be able to recover this afternoon. Clouds are still lingering, though sunshine is starting to break back out causing temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80's. Instability continues to go up this afternoon with some models hinting it could rebound to 2500J/kg + over parts of Southern Illinois and into Western Kentucky and the cap being eroded by mid-afternoon as convection initiates in East-Central Missouri. Once again, comparing soundings between Cape Girardeau, Paducah, and Evansville, the best ingredients continue to be close to the Ohio River across Southeastern Illinois and into Western Kentucky and moving to the southeast. 

Evansville, Indiana skew-t at 5PM Wednesday

With that being said, I'm leaning heavily on a mixture of the HiRes NAM, HRRR, and RAP for tonight's forecast. All three of these models are in good agreement with placement and timing. Storms are likely to pop up as early as 3PM across Southern Illinois and last into the evening hours with activity shifting to the south and to the southeast. Severe Weather is possible anywhere in Southern Illinois with higher risks the further south and east you go. Though an isolated tornado is possible, the biggest threats are going to be large hail and damaging winds. 

HRRR Radar Simulation at 4PM Wednesday. (Only use to get rough idea, not actually what radar will look like)