April 16th: Cold Not Giving Up, Drier Weather Ahead

Wow. The first half of April has been one for the books. If it hadn't been for the stretch of milder days between April 11th and April 14th, it would surely be one of the top 3 coldest starts to April to date on record. The first ten days of the month ranked 3rd on coldest starts to April. In fact, today (Monday April 16th) we recorded a "trace" of snowfall, which comes only two days shy of the latest snowfall on record (April 18th, 1983).

Rain has been another factor plaguing much of southern Illinois for quite some time. Since January 1st, rainfall amounts range from 17-18" along I-64 in Jefferson and Wayne counties to more than 20" of rain in the "Southern Seven". That's a surplus of more than 5" across most of the region and ranks as the 4th wettest start to a year in Cape Girardeau, MO, 7th wettest in Evansville, IN, and 11th wettest in Paducah, KY. Since March 1st, we've recorded rainfall on 22 of 47 days at the station in Carterville, IL.

4" Soil Temperatures Under Bare Soil Morning of April 16th 

LOOKING AHEAD

Pattern continues to show signs of holding onto the cold, with a slight moderation over time. The good news for gardeners and farmers is the drier pattern that appears to be taking hold.

Rain Outlook
As mentioned in last week's post, April 22nd has been a date that was consistent for bringing in a good chance for rain. Though it's only Monday, it looks like that storm is going to be a "southern track" storm system, but close enough to provide some smaller rain amounts generally ranging from less than 0.25" along I-64 to possibly 0.5" along the Ohio River.

The last week of April (23rd-27th) will bring at least five consecutive days without rain as ridging takes hold over the middle of the country. Beyond that, April 28th-29th look to be the next system to bring us rain.

Precipitation vs. Normal Last Week of April

Temperature Outlook
Cooler than normal is still the overall trend that last through the end of month and possibly into the first half of May. There will be warmer days mixed in between storm systems, and naturally, the temperatures will moderate as we get later into the season and the sun angle gets higher in the sky. Coinciding the warm days with the dry days may play out between the 25th-27th. We need to watch for a potential cool spell towards the second week of May, but by that time, we'll be past the date for our last freeze on record, so we're likely talking morning temperatures back into the 40s if it actually occurs. Long-range, there are some signs that the pattern will begin to shift towards the second half of May.

Heading into Spring, our outlook suggested wet and cool, which has played out, but our outlook also revolved around a wet weather shutting off towards Summer. That remains to be seen, but there is the concern that a repeat of 2017 could occur.