May 14th: From a cold April, to a scorching May

From one of the coldest Aprils on record across much of the Midwest, to one of the warmest starts to May. For St. Louis, it's the 2nd warmest start to May in 144 years of observations. For Paducah, it's the warmest start in 69 years of records.

PATTERN BREAKDOWN
A large dome of high pressure over the Deep South has been in control for the last five days, shifting the moisture north across the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes and bringing the heat northward. This has been a bit of a blessing for farmers who have struggled to get much corn in the ground up to this point. While the rain has stopped long enough for a lot of planting to get done, the sunshine and warm temperatures have sent soil moisture plummeting, and much of the newly planted grain could likely use a drink.

4" Soil Moisture Trend from April 1st-May 14thth

The big ridge is set to break down as we move towards the middle of the week when a series of weak waves moving through the jetstream will combine with a large storm system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to suppress the high pressure dome. This pattern is a bit tricky, but will send better rain chances into the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley starting Monday (May 14th) evening and continuing through the end of the week. The big question remains "how much rain"? We're getting to that time of year where storms become more scattered. Some see a lot of rain, while others are left more high and dry, and this pattern enhances that even more. 

Starting Monday night we'll be watching a round of storms diving south and east through northern Missouri. There's some hints these storms could make it into the I-64 corridor late Monday night. Beyond that, there will be daily chances for scattered showers and storms through the end of the week (May 18th), mainly focused in the afternoon and evening. While it's nearly impossible to pinpoint who will see rain and who will not, the set up favors better odds of storms along the Ohio River in southern Illinois and points south and east (western Kentucky & southern Indiana). Anyone who gets caught in these storms should expect very heavy rain in addition to a lot of lightning. 

High Pressure Dome in Control Early in the Week

Storm System Suppresses Ridge Westward While Sending Moisture North

Our overall Summer forecast thoughts have not changed much since the early part of the Spring. A cool, wet Spring was expected, but we feel the rain will shut off and the Summer could end up being quite dry, especially June-August.