June 19th: A break from the heat, better rain chances on the way

A LOOK BACK
Heat and humidity have gripped the area in mid-June with five (and likely six after Tuesday) straight days with temperatures 90º. The average high temperature so far for the month of June is just shy of 90º with only two afternoons cooler than normal.

Daily Afternoon Temperatures Through June 18th

Through June 18th, the month has been one of the top 3 warmest on record. Following on the heels of the warmest May on record across southern Illinois, the growing season has been extremely warm thus far.

I've had some questions regarding this year's hot weather in comparison to the brutal summer of 2012, but there are some BIG differences. In 2012, we recorded around 3" of rainfall from April through June. 2018? We've recorded 10"+ of rainfall from April through June 18th. The dry weather also led to an abnormally low amount of humidity in 2012 with the only year we didn't muster a single 70º dew point.


LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
A major pattern shift is set to occur this week finally breaking the heat and humidity and increasing rain chances. To this point, the month of June has been very dry for much of southern Illinois, especially areas that have missed on some of the afternoon t-storms.

THIS WEEK

Storm Moves in Later in the Week

As the big ridge that's gripped the region moves southeast, a seasonably strong storm system will enter the picture from the northwest. A big surge of moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in the development of more widespread showers and storms as the storm system drops through the Plains. Biggest risk for any type of heavy rain is on Thursday, but scattered to even possibly widespread showers and storms will stick around through Friday.

NEXT WEEK

Ridge Gets Push West, Pattern Remains Active

The big dome of high pressure remains one of the nearly permanent features we have kept an eye on this spring and now into summer. Ridge appears to shift to the West which keeps the middle of the country active. It's a similar pattern we saw at the beginning of June.

Last 60 Days Rainfall Compared to Normal
Much of Southern Illinois 2-4" Drier Than Normal

BELOW: Models indicating next 10 days wetter than normal